A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
